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Data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 0.4% in October 2026. This figure represents a slowdown compared to the overall monthly change recorded from August to September 2026, which was 0.6%. Despite the decline in pace, economists define the current level of inflation as still uncomfortably high.
Why it matters
The trend in prices has direct implications for Federal Reserve decisions. The central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 in September 2026, with the aim of bringing inflation back toward the 2% target. Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Fed, stated that the institution is dedicated to ensuring that relative price changes in some sectors do not spread throughout the entire economy and that inflation expectations remain anchored. The context is also influenced by the midterm elections, which resulted in Democratic control of Congress, an outcome interpreted as a criticism of the outgoing administration’s management of high prices.
The numbers
The main factor behind the inflationary increase was the rise in energy costs linked to the conflict in Iran. However, in October, energy prices grew by 0.7%, a figure lower than the 5.2% increase recorded in September. The average price of gasoline showed a downward trend: from $4.41 per gallon at the beginning of October to $4.22 at the end of the month. On Monday, the price fell below the threshold of $4.00 per gallon for the first time since July 2026. Diesel remains more expensive by about $2.50 compared to the previous year. Regarding annual inflation, official data were not released due to the government shutdown that prevented the collection of October 2025 data. Oxford Economics estimates an interpolated value of 3.9%, while the three-year peak had been reached in May 2026 at 4.2%. The unemployment rate remains stable just above 4%.
What remains to be understood
The exact value of annual inflation for October 2026 is not yet official. Furthermore, it remains uncertain how much and with what speed a further increase in interest rates could alleviate pressure on prices, considering the strong current link between general inflation and energy costs. Consumer sentiment shows mixed signals: Joanne Hsu, director of the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan, noted that while morale improved for low- and medium-wealth consumers, it fell by 5% for those with the largest stock portfolios, with comments revealing growing anxiety about a possible bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.
Sources: CNBC Top News, CNBC Markets, The Guardian US Business.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.
* Content created with the assistance of artificial intelligence systems.