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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published a working paper in October 2026, signed by Iñaki Aldasoro and Rashad Ahmed, which analyzes the link between interest rates on bank deposits in the United States and the expansion of stablecoins. The study, based on data collected from January 2019 to June 2025, highlights how commercial banks’ decisions on the cost of money can directly influence the pace of adoption of these digital assets.
Why it matters
The results suggest that banks maintain significant leverage over the crypto ecosystem. According to the authors, when rates on traditional deposits increase, the appeal of stablecoins decreases because users can obtain similar or higher returns without being exposed to digital market volatility. This substitution mechanism is particularly evident for USDC, issued by Circle, which shows a stronger correlation compared to Tether’s USDT, likely due to USDC’s closer ties with US users and institutions.
The regulatory context is changing rapidly with the approval of the GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July 2025 and entered into force in January. The law legalizes and regulates stablecoins in the USA, but leaves open the question of whether issuers will be able to pay yields to holders. Aldasoro and Ahmed note that regulators must carefully evaluate this aspect, as allowing interest payments could alter the balance between the traditional banking sector and the stablecoin market.
The numbers
The study quantifies the economic impact with precision. In a base scenario, the market capitalization of stablecoins typically grows by 15% over a ten-week period. However, after an increase of just 1 basis point (0.01%) in bank deposit rates, this growth is reduced to 12% according to the baseline method used by economists.
Using a different causal approach, the same 1 basis point increase brings the estimate of stablecoin growth down to 6%. The data also indicate that banks tend to rapidly raise rates on savings accounts when the federal funds rate exceeds the 3% threshold, thus intensifying the competitive effect on stablecoins.
What remains to be understood
The working paper reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those officially held by the BIS. Furthermore, the sample analyzed covers a single high-rate cycle in which stablecoins did not pay interest to holders, limiting the extrapolation of results to different future scenarios. Regulatory agencies such as the OCC, FDIC, and Treasury are still drafting operational guidelines to implement the GENIUS Act, so details on how to manage competition between bank yields and potential crypto yield remain to be defined.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.
* Content created with the assistance of artificial intelligence systems.