Hardware Ready Ready to Bench?
On October 20, 2026, JPMorgan’s asset management division published the thirty-first edition of its annual long-term market assumptions, titled ‘Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions’. For the first time in the bank’s research history, Bitcoin was included in this document with a specific expected return range. According to the estimates presented, the cryptocurrency should generate a compound annual return of 10% over the next decade, thus surpassing projections for US large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and the balanced 60/40 portfolio (7%).
Why it matters
The inclusion of Bitcoin in a report of this type marks a significant step for traditional finance. JPMorgan positions the asset as a speculative instrument and a hedge against monetary easing, defining it primarily as a high-beta risk asset that follows global money supply growth. However, the bank maintains a cautious stance: the report highlights that unstable correlations and high volatility currently prevent Bitcoin from being considered a reliable diversifier in balanced strategic portfolios. JPMorgan also clarified that the idea that fiat currency devaluation would automatically trigger an influx into cryptocurrencies is “misleading”. Nevertheless, the bank is integrating blockchain technology into its services, bringing JPM Coin to the Ethereum network and participating in stock tokenization initiatives alongside BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and DTCC.
The numbers
The report’s quantitative projections indicate an estimated annualized volatility for Bitcoin of 55%, significantly higher than the 17% expected for gold. In a long-term bullish scenario, JPMorgan’s model estimates that the price of Bitcoin could reach $385,000 within ten years. At the time of publication of the article on CoinDesk, the approximate price was around $82,000. In the context of market flows, net inflows of $526.7 million were recorded in US spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Monday preceding the report’s release, including $665.2 million for BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. However, total net outflows of $88 million from these instruments occurred in October.
What remains to be understood
The 10% return forecast is a base case projected into the future and does not represent verified historical data. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, welcomed the forecast but criticized the 55% volatility assumption, deeming it too high and therefore making the return estimate excessively conservative. JPMorgan has not yet recommended a specific Bitcoin allocation for clients. The future evolution of the asset’s role in portfolios will depend on variables not yet confirmed, such as potential volatility decline, stabilization of correlations with other asset classes and further regulatory clarity, following the SEC’s approval of spot ETFs in 2024 and the start of a more open regulatory approach in the United States from 2025. CEO Jamie Dimon has continued to express public criticism of Bitcoin, previously calling it a “hyperbolic fraud”, while praising the underlying blockchain technology.
Sources: CoinDesk, Decrypt, Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine, CryptoSlate.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.
* Content created with the assistance of artificial intelligence systems.